Normal Distribution

Abdullah Al Mahmud

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Most Important

It’s the

  • most important distribution
  • most common distribution
  • most widely-used distribution

Shape

PDF

The normal PDF is given by

\[ f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}} e^{-\frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}\right)^2}; -\infty <x<\infty \]

  • First discovered by Abraham De Moivre

Binomial to Normal

  • Number of trial (n) is large (\(n \rightarrow \infty\))
  • \(P(S) \approx P(\bar S\)), where \(S =\) Success

Check out here

Poisson to Normal

\(m \rightarrow \infty\)

\[ \lim_{m \to \infty} \text{Pois}(m) \approx \mathcal{N}(m, m) \] Check out here

Empirical Rule

68‑95‑99.7 Rule

Empirical Rule Area

  • \(P(\mu - \sigma \le \mu + \sigma) = 0.6826\)
  • \(P(\mu - 2 \sigma \le \mu + 2 \sigma) = 0.9544\)
  • \(P(\mu - 3 \sigma \le \mu + 3 \sigma) = 0.9973\)

Properties

  • Bell-shaped
  • Symmetrical about mean
  • \(\beta_1 = 0, \beta_2 = 3\)
  • \(\mu = Me = Mo\)
  • Area under whole curve is 1
  • The curve on either side of mean extends up to infinity.
  • All odd central moments are zero

More Properties

  • Empirical rule
  • Linear combination of Normal \(\rightarrow\) normal
  • \(MD(\bar X) \frac 45\sigma\)
  • \(QD = \frac 23\sigma\)
  • \(M_X(t) = \mathbb{E}[e^{tX}] = \exp\left(\mu t + \frac{1}{2} \sigma^2 t^2\right) -\infty \le t \le \infty\)

Odd Central Moments

\(\mu_1 = \mu_3 = \cdots = \mu_{2n+1} = 0\)

Mathematically Why? > -

Application or Normal Distribution

  • Quality Control in industry
  • Most distributions tend to be normal under some assumptions
  • Sometimes transformation makes normal
  • Used in hypothesis testing (many samples are normally distributed)

Standard Normal

If \(X \sim N(\mu, \sigma ^2), z = \frac{x-\mu}{\sigma} \sim N(0,1)\)

  • \(\displaystyle f(z) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi}}e^{\frac{-z^2}{2}}\)
  • \(E(Z) = 0\)
  • \(V(Z) = S(Z) = 0\)

Standard Normal Mean

Let \(X \sim N(\mu, \sigma ^2)\)

  • Now let \(\displaystyle Z = \frac{X-\mu}{\sigma}\)
  • \(E(Z) = E(\frac{X-Z}{\mu})\)
  • = \(\frac{1}{\sigma} E(X-\mu)\)
  • = \(\frac{1}{\sigma} [E(X) - E(\mu)]\)
  • = \(\frac{1}{\sigma} (\mu - \mu)\)
  • 0

Standard Normal Variance

\(V(Z) = V(\frac{X-Z}{\mu})\)

  • = \(\frac{}{}\)

Normal Problems

Find Skewness

Find the coefficient of skewness of normal distribution with variance 4.

  • \(\mu_3 = 0\)
  • \(\sigma^2 =\mu_2 = 4\)
  • \(\gamma_1 = \sqrt{\beta_1} = \frac{\mu_3}{\sqrt{\mu_2^3}}\)
  • \(\gamma_1 = \frac{0}{\sqrt{4^3}} = 0\)
  • So no skew (symmetric)

Probablity of Z [-1, 1]

Find \(P(-1 \le z \le 1)\)

  • \(P(-1 \le z \le 1)\)
  • \(P(-1 \le z \le 0) + P(0 \le z \le 1)\)
  • \(0.3413 + 0.3413\)
  • 0.6826

Method 2

  • \(P(-1 \le z \le 1) = P(z\le1) - P(z \le -1)\)
  • \(P(z \le -1) = 1- P(z \le 1)\) (since symmetric)
  • \(P(-1 \le z \le 1) = P(z\le1) - [1- P(z \le 1)]\)
  • \(2 P(z \le 1) - 1\)
  • \(2 \times 8413-1 = 0.6826\)

Find MD of N(20, 25)

  • \(\mu = 20 , \sigma^2 = 25\)
  • \(\sigma = 5\)

Mean Deviation about Mean

  • \(MD(\bar X) = \frac45 \sigma\)

Find Varinace

Find the variance of normal distribution when \(\mu_4 = 2\)

  • Kurtosis, \(\beta_2 = \frac{\mu_4}{\mu_2}\)
  • Mesokortic \(\rightarrow \beta_2 = 3\)
  • \(3 = \frac{2}{\mu_2^2}\)
  • \(\mu_2^2 = 0.67\)
  • \(\sigma^2 = ?\)
  • \(\sqrt{0.67}\)

P(X > 20)

\(\mu = 15, \sigma = 4, P(X > 20)= ?\)

  • \(P(X > 20)\)
  • \(P(\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma} > \frac{20-15}{4})\)
  • \(P(z>1.25)\)
  • \(P(0\le z \le \infty) - P(0\le z \le 1.25)\)
  • \(0.5 - 0.3944 = 0.1056\)

GMAT Question

Scores on the GMAT are roughly normally distributed with a mean of 527 and a standard deviation of 112. What is the probability of an individual scoring above 500 on the GMAT?[source]

  • \(\mu = 527, \sigma = 112\)
  • \(P(X > 500)\)

Gestation

The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth approximates a normal distribution with a mean of 266 days and a standard deviation of 16 days.

  • What proportion of all pregnancies will last between 240 and 270 days (roughly between 8 and 9 months)?
  • What length of time marks the shortest 70% of all pregnancies?

Forest burn

The average number of acres burned by forest and range fires in a large New Mexico county is 4,300 acres per year, with a standard deviation of 750 acres. The distribution of the number of acres burned is normal.

  • What is the probability that between 2,500 and 4,200 acres will be burned in any given year?